Remoaners, tactical voting, political betting: why the general election isn’t a done deal : i News

So Theresa May wants to crush the opposition, Jeremy Corbyn wants to punish Mike Ashley, and people up and down the country are complaining about being ignored. Some are still fighting the battles of the past, others are struggling to reverse Brexit, but everyone, it seems, is angry about something. In this febrile climate, we should prepare for an election campaign that will do very little to heal the divisions exposed by last year’s European referendum. A foregone conclusion? Corbyn insists the result is a not a foregone conclusion, and it’s true that in a two-horse race, anything can happen (witness Donald Trump). If, for instance, I were to take on Usain Bolt over 100 metres, he would be as big a favourite to win as Mrs May is on 8 June. But, in a head-to-head race, it’s always possible that the favourite could trip. Highly improbable, I know, but still possible. Corbyn’s only chance, though, would be for Mrs May to take an unexpected fall in her leopard-print kitten heels. Even against a backdrop of shock results in polls around the world, the bookies here are still offering odds of 25-1 for Corbyn to win an overall majority, and that tells its own story. More complex than we think Nevertheless, I’m not sure it’s as cut and dry as all that, and when we wake up on 9 June to – in all likelihood – a Tory victory, it could also be that the electoral map is still rather opaque. If my anecdotal evidence means anything, moderate Conservatives are turned off by the hardline rhetoric employed by the government and their supporters in the media. Disenfranchised Remainers could change the map I know of several lifetime Tory voters, resigned Remainers, who have said they intend to vote for the Liberal Democrats. (The Daily Mail’s front page this week, “Crush the Saboteurs”, it declaimed, was designed to strengthen support for the Government on Brexit, but its stridency and supremacist overtones may have had the opposite effect.) The Lib Dems will be the principal beneficiaries of any disenchantment among Tory Remainers, and also the vogue for tactical voting. Already the Green Party is proposing not to stand in seats where they split the vote to let in Conservative candidates, and there is talk of the establishment of a “progressive alliance”, a rag-tag movement designed to halt progress towards a hard Brexit.

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4 Comments

  1. Jeremy Corbyn wants to punish Mike Ashley, i dont think so this man hasnt a bad piece of hate in him never the less we need to get the message out may in more dead corbyn in more to live

    Liked by 1 person

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