If the eye-catching YouGov projection came true, Theresa May’s party would still win the most seats but could be narrowly defeated on key issues.
A shock poll tonight claimed the Tories could lose 20 seats in the general election – falling short of an overall majority.
If the eye-catching projection came true, Theresa May’s party would still win the most seats but could be narrowly defeated on key issues if Labour, the SNP and Lib Dems all voted against her in the Commons.
Despite the Tory poll lead narrowing over recent weeks, no major survey has put Theresa May’s party fewer than five points ahead of Labour.
An ICM poll today put the gap between the two parties at 12 points, with the Conservatives on 45% of the vote and Labour on 33%.
YouGov produced the new model, its first seat-by-seat estimate of the 2017 general election, for The Times based on 50,000 interviews over a week.
It predicted the Conservatives could lose 20 seats to win 310 in total, 16 short of an overall majority and creating a hung parliament.
The poll included wide a margin for error and said the Tory seat numbers could vary between 274 on a bad night and 345 on a good night, The Times reported.
Former Labour leader Ed Miliband, who was neck-and-neck with the Tories in the polls before the 2015 election, wrote: “The pollsters have been off my Christmas card list since 2015. Just saying.”